德国:欧洲的经济强国.P. 摩根私人银行 探索s The Region’s Investment Opportunities And Challenges

2016年6月9日(英国伦敦) – J.P. 摩根私人银行 provides its current outlook on Germany, 欧洲的大国, and the opportunities and challenges the country presents for private client investors.

介绍
Germany is the euro area’s powerhouse, with its economy contributing almost 30% to the region’s GDP. As the world’s third-largest exporter of manufactured goods with an 8% share, 德国车, 机器, 化学产品, 电子产品, 药品和食品无处不在. 结果是, Germany’s economic health is of paramount importance to the euro area’s economy, and its complex economy is creating opportunities and challenges for investors.

外部需求与全球增长
制造业占GDP的23%, and the services sector linked to its export market is relatively large (exports have a 37% services content). Germany’s exports have also helped the economy recover since the financial crisis, and the country’s economic cycle is closely correlated with global growth.

“Trade with other euro area countries accounts for just over a third of Germany’s exports and imports, which means the health of the global economy outside the European Union is important for German businesses,乌尔里希·冯·奥尔说, 他是德国私人银行的投资主管. “然而, limited exposure to emerging markets means slower growth in those regions has only a minimal impact on its export sector. The boost from the euro’s depreciation may be fading in 2016, 但随着国内需求的增加, 进口也可能增加.”

中小企业的实力
The main driver of export strength comes from Germany’s “hidden champions”: the Mittelstand companies. 这三个.6 million mostly small- and medium-sized enterprises account for around 36% of total revenues and employ almost 60% of the nation’s workforce. They make up more than 60% of most German service sectors and 80% of turnover in the country’s hotel and restaurant, 教育界及建造界.

与此形成鲜明对比的是, 制造业, financial services and utilities are predominantly controlled by large businesses. 以收入衡量, the share of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in these three sectors is as low as 24%, 19%和10%, 分别.

投资机会
“欧洲股票是我们投资组合的重要组成部分, and in the past we gained exposure to German equities through the MDAX Index rather than the DAX, 该国的主要指数,冯·奥尔说. “然而，两者之间存在显著差异. The DAX has underperformed Europe’s other leading indices over the start of 2016, 主要是因为它在金融类股中的权重很大, 19%.”

考虑到DAX有受监管行业的敞口, 比如公用事业, 全球投资银行和全球保险公司, J.P. 摩根 believes the MDAX is a better way to gain exposure to the strength of the domestic consumer. 整体, the MDAX capitalizes on the strength of the German economy and has a particularly attractive mix of aerospace, 房地产和非必需消费品股.

命运的分化——欧洲股市的一个代表
“Our European equity exposure is neutral relative to the benchmark,” Von Auer added. “我们还不会开始区分不同国家, 尤其是在欧洲央行正在实施宽松政策之际. Until the central bank starts buying investment grade corporate 信贷 and banks begin to take up the new targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), 我们预测该地区的经济增长率在1%到1%之间.5%.”

“在这种环境下, Germany is well placed for maintaining its trend growth from the past few years. The German stock market is often considered a proxy for European equities, 尤其是外国投资者,冯·奥尔说. “Our perspective is more nuanced and we believe equity selection is key for German stocks. Those that provide exposure to domestic consumers can avoid global risks and offer potential upside to domestic demand.”

结论
Germany’s economic and political climate provides the basis for understanding Europe’s future. Germany has insisted over the past few decades that it wants to help European development from an integrated perspective and not as an individual effort. 同样的,我.P. 摩根 has diversified its European equities exposure throughout the region because we believe the ECB’s efforts are aimed at both the core and periphery, and drive toward a convergence of economic development across the euro area.

Opportunities in German financial assets – across the capital structure, both in equities and corporate 信贷 – should be approached selectively from a bottom-up perspective, especially in an environment where sovereign yields are negative at the longer end of the yield curve.

关于J.P. 摩根私人银行
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